Does the model beat the market?

Prediction error, lower is better

Each match is scored by how far the stated chance was from what happened (the Brier score). The market is Polymarket's price just before the match, the model is ours, both locked before the first ball.

Side by side, same matches

The ledger

Every match is written down once, before it starts, and never edited. Percentages are the chance the first-named team wins.

Where the numbers come from

• Market price: Polymarket Gamma API, public market data, midpoint of best bid and ask at lock time. Polymarket is not available in India, so this page is research only and nothing here is traded.
• Model: pre-match logistic regression, calculated here from Cricsheet ball-by-ball results (Open Data Commons Attribution licence).
• Results: taken from Polymarket's own settlement of each match, which resolves from ESPNcricinfo.